2025 Hurricane Forecast: What It Means for Federal Contractors

May 15, 2025 8:00:00 AM / by USFCR

2025 Hurricane Forecast- What It Means for Federal Contractors

The 2025 hurricane season isn’t just a headline. For federal contractors, it’s a signal. The latest projections from Colorado State University show an above-average Atlantic season. That means more storms, more landfalls, and more government contracts issued on short notice to businesses that are ready to respond.

If your business can deliver emergency services, housing, cleanup, logistics, or construction, this forecast could shape your next win.

2025 Hurricane Season Outlook

This year’s forecast includes:

  • 17 named storms (average: 14.4)

  • 9 hurricanes (average: 7.2)

  • 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

  • 155 ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), compared to an average of 123

  • 165% Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

That means stronger storms lasting longer and forming under more favorable conditions than usual. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall is 51% for the continental U.S., with the Gulf Coast at 33%, the East Coast at 26%, and the Caribbean at 56%. These are all well above historical averages.

The conditions behind this activity include warm Atlantic waters and a likely neutral or weak La Niña ENSO phase during peak season, both of which support hurricane formation and intensification.

What That Means for Federal Vendors

Every major hurricane triggers a flood of emergency contracts. Agencies like FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers, the USDA Forest Service, and HUD need vendors who are already registered and prepared. That means pre-qualified contractors with:

  • An active and complete SAM registration

  • Relevant NAICS codes for emergency work

  • Compliance with set-aside qualifications, when applicable

  • The ability to respond quickly after landfall

These contracts don’t wait. In many cases, awards are made within 48 to 72 hours.

FEMA uses rapid-response vendors through existing purchase vehicles. Other agencies rely on simplified acquisition procedures (SAP), GSA Schedules, or award directly from tools like the Advanced Procurement Portal (APP). If you’re not visible when the contracts are issued, you won’t get called.

Most Requested Services During Hurricane Response

Common contract types include:

  • Debris removal and vegetation clearing

  • Temporary housing and shelter systems

  • Generator and fuel supply

  • Mobile HVAC units

  • Emergency medical transport

  • Logistics and distribution services

  • Cleanup and sanitation

Contracts often go to companies already in the system with the ability to scale quickly. If your SAM registration is expired, your profile incomplete, or your UEI inactive, your business won’t even show up in searches.

Federal Contracting Readiness Quiz - USFCR

High-Value NAICS Codes for Hurricane Contracts

Federal agencies use NAICS codes to filter qualified vendors. These are some of the most common codes tied to disaster work:

  • 562119: Other Waste Collection

  • 561720: Janitorial Services

  • 624221: Temporary Shelters

  • 237130: Power and Communication Line Construction

  • 488510: Freight and Logistics

  • 561990: Miscellaneous Support Services

  • 423730: HVAC Equipment and Supplies

Make sure your SAM profile reflects the codes that match your actual services. Adding disaster-related NAICS codes now ensures you're discoverable when response efforts start.

What Contractors Are Searching For Right Now

Search data from USFCR's web analytics confirms rising interest in emergency contracts. Terms like “FEMA contracts,” “FEMA-approved contractor list,” and “FEMA rapid response” are seeing increased search volume and high click-through rates. These searches typically peak ahead of hurricane season as vendors seek to get ready.

The intent is clear. Contractors want to know how to register, how to respond fast, and how to get found when the government starts buying.

Who Buys After a Storm?

Hurricane response involves multiple agencies depending on the region and impact. Expect contracts from:

  • FEMA

  • Army Corps of Engineers

  • U.S. Forest Service

  • Department of Health and Human Services

  • Department of Housing and Urban Development

  • U.S. Coast Guard

  • State and local emergency agencies

Most opportunities are awarded to vendors already visible in the government’s purchasing ecosystem. That includes APP, SAM, and agency-specific vendor databases.

USFCR Client Spotlight: B&G Forestry

2025 Contracting Events - USFCR Exclusive

Elizabeth Cline, founder of B&G Forestry in Colorado, won a Blanket Purchase Agreement (BPA) for hurricane relief with the National Forest Service. She started by registering with USFCR and building a government-facing profile. From there, she completed SAP training, added relevant NAICS codes, and activated her Online Capabilities Statement.

She didn’t wait for a storm to hit. She got ready ahead of time and secured a contract that now puts her in a prime position for future disaster response opportunities.

What’s Next?

If you provide shelter, cleanup, logistics, construction, or power services, now is the time to act. Once the season starts, response contracts move fast. The contractors who win are the ones already positioned to respond.

Make sure you:

  • Renew your SAM registration

  • Add disaster-related NAICS codes

  • Upload or refresh your capability statement

  • Set up APP alerts for hurricane-related bids

  • Get help now instead of scrambling when a storm hits

USFCR can help you check all these boxes in one session.

FAQ: Federal Contracting and Hurricane Season

Do I need to be in SAM to qualify for FEMA contracts?
Yes. You must have an active SAM registration with a current UEI to be eligible for any federal award.

Can new businesses win emergency contracts?
Absolutely. Many hurricane response contracts are under $250,000 and use simplified acquisition. You don’t need past performance to get started—you just need to be ready.

Do I need to be in the impacted region to qualify?
Not necessarily. Some contracts prioritize local vendors, but others are awarded to firms nationwide who can mobilize quickly. Logistics and support services are often national in scope.

What if I’m not certified as a small business or set-aside?
While certifications help, they’re not required for all awards. Speed, visibility, and accuracy in your registration often matter more in disaster response.

Register or Renew Your Business Online

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Tags: News, Disaster Relief

USFCR

Written by USFCR

US Federal Contractor Registration (USFCR) is the largest and most trusted full-service Federal consulting organization. USFCR also provides set-aside qualifications, including women-owned, veteran-owned, disadvantaged (8a), HUBZone, and other federal contracting services, technology, and training.